ten year note
The ES bears have a slight edge, but they need to move fast.
The S&P has gone into correction mode but the selling has been tepid. The complacent bulls haven't been given a reason to second-guess their bets; if the bears want to make progress they will want to see something happen sooner rather than later. The longer prices hover in this area the more likely the edge will shift back to the bulls.
The meaningful economic reports and the bulk of corporate earnings are behind us. From here, the market will have to find a way to stand on its own two feet. In our opinion, the legs of the bull are a little shakey. Assuming we don't receive any surprise tweets or trade tariff resolutions, the ES should creep into the 2780ish area and Treasuries should begin to make their way higher.