Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker at DeCarley Trading, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine Columnist, TheStreet.com, Contributor to Bloomberg Television, RFD-TV, CNBC’s Mad Money, and the Author of several books
Carley Garner is a futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services, in Las Vegas, Nevada. With nearly two decades of experience, her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC, and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. You might also see her on the Cow Guy Close hosted by Scott Shellady on RFD-TV and “Futures” aired on TD Ameritrade Network. Garner is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com and its Real Money Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country.
Garner is also an award-winning commodity futures and options trading book author. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader's First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. She pens a monthly column for the long-running Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective, and The Financial Futures Report, have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at www.DeCarleyTrading.com.
Carley is a magna cum laude graduate of the University of Nevada Las Vegas, from which she earned dual bachelor’s degrees in finance and accounting. Carley jumped into the options and futures industry with both feet in early 2004 and has become one of the most recognized names in the business.
Visit Carley at www.DeCarleyTrading.com.
Click here to see the latest press coverage, commodity educational articles, and trading videos by Carley Garner.
It is early, but October has been the least volatile month...EVER.
If today was the end of the month, this would be the quietest October on record and it would also be the quietest month ever. Of course, it is too early to suggest that is what is in store for the markets come October 31st, but it should at least offer some perspective.
Further, it has been almost a year without a 3% drawdown in the S&P 500. This is the second longest run of its kind in history. If the market survives the next 10 days, it will beat the previous record. Keep in mind, 3% is literally a drop in the bucket. At today's price, that would be a mere 75 ES points.
We don't when the dam will break, but we do know it always does, eventually. Traders should be on their toes. Afterall, investor complacency is at an all-time high and historically such environments haven't ended well.
As mentioned in a previous newsletter, the University of Michigan stock market sentiment index measuring the percentage of investors that believe the stock market will be higher a year from now is at an all-time high. Similarly, credit spreads are near historical lows (this is the difference between the yield on high-risk securities and risk-free Treasury securities). Tight credit spreads suggest investors are reaching for yield and lack concern for economic turmoil (in short, they are complacent). The last time we saw such tight credit spreads was mid-2007, just prior to the financial collapse. We aren't predicting a repeat of 2007, we are simply saying the bulls should consider exercising caution. Is anybody familiar with "Old Man Partridge" from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"? The trend is only your friend until it ends.