Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker at DeCarley Trading, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine Columnist, TheStreet.com, Contributor to Bloomberg Television, RFD-TV, CNBC’s Mad Money, and the Author of several books

Carley Garner is a futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services, in Las Vegas, Nevada. With nearly two decades of experience, her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC, and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. You might also see her on the Cow Guy Close hosted by Scott Shellady on RFD-TV and “Futures” aired on TD Ameritrade Network. Garner is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com and its Real Money Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country.

Garner is also an award-winning commodity futures and options trading book author. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader's First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. She pens a monthly column for the long-running Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective, and The Financial Futures Report, have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at www.DeCarleyTrading.com.

Carley is a magna cum laude graduate of the University of Nevada Las Vegas, from which she earned dual bachelor’s degrees in finance and accounting. Carley jumped into the options and futures industry with both feet in early 2004 and has become one of the most recognized names in the business.

Visit Carley at www.DeCarleyTrading.com.

Click here to see the latest press coverage, commodity educational articles, and trading videos by Carley Garner. 

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The DeCarley Perspective is a trading newsletter with a focus on the commodity futures markets and options on futures trading. It is distributed to commodity trading clients of the DeCarley Trading brokerage service. 

This commodity trading newsletter, written by Mad Money on CNBC, Bloomberg, and RFD-TV contributor, Carley Garner, provides a refreshingly honest and comprehensive perspective of the current commodity and financial market environments. The DeCarley Perspective is distributed several times throughout the month to those with an active commodity brokerage account with DeCarley.  This newsletter covers both the futures and options markets for commodity products such as grains, meats, softs, metals, energies, currencies, interest rates, and stock indices.

In each edition of the newsletter, futures broker Carley Garner, of DeCarley will share insights into fundamental commodity market analysis in addition to the seasonal outlook of various futures markets.   This futures trading newsletters includes a substantial amount of technical analysis performed on the commodity markets, with visual charts to support opinions. "The DeCarley Perspective" may contain specific trading recommendations (primarily option trading strategies) or broad-based commodity trading strategy ideas.

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Consumer Confidence at 125...are you kidding me?

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index for the month of March was reported on Tuesday to be 125.6! If I recall, this index bottomed out near 20 as the stock market was making what we now know as a generational low in 2009. I started to type that the March reading was the highest I've ever seen, before noticing that it printed a 128.6 at the end of 2000. In all fairness, I was a clueless college student in 2000 so even if it happened, I probably didn't actually see it.

The premise behind this index is that consumers are feeling emboldened by a positive view of business, labor market conditions, and the overall economy. On a side note, the survey responsible for this index was taken before the failure of the health care reform bill. Nevertheless, it is clear that consumers are feeling good and as a result, they are putting money to work in the stock market.

If you look at a long-term chart of the Consumer Confidence index, it almost identically coincides with the direction of the stock market. With this in mind, there could be some red flags waving. In the past, we've seen major tops and bottoms in the stock market at times in which the Consumer Confidence index is at extreme highs and lows, respectively. Particularly readings in excess of 100.

For instance, the last time the Consumer Confidence was this high in 2000, the S&P peaked dropping 50% over the next two years. Likewise, the Consumer Confidence was near 110 in 2007 just before the S&P fell 60% in the subsequent two years. Since the election, we've seen the Consumer Confidence index breach and hold above 100 for the first time since 2007 (and prior to that the early 2000s). Will this time be different?

*It is only fair to note that the Consumer Confidence hovered above 100 in the mid-2000s for quite some time before the stock market rolled over and during that time stocks rallied nicely (until they didn't).