Tuesday, 06 January, 2009

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When it rains it pours.

Written by Carley Garner

30 year T-Bond and 10 year T-Note Futures January 5 2009

January 5th, 2009

When it rains it pours.

Yields have skyrocketed in recent trading sessions as the flight to quality demand for ultra low return Treasuries has finally dissipated. The Treasury "bubble" has been a perfect example of a market's tendency to overshoot fundamentals. The economic and monetary policy today is nearly identical (or maybe even slightly more bond friendly) than it was on December 30th before the massive slide. To put the move into perspective, we have witnessed a nearly 10-handle plummet in the previous three trading sessions. so far the fall from grace has been even steeper than the one-way rally.

Cautious Monday trade.

Equities suffered from some back and filling trade following last week's impressive New Year rally but buying stepped in. Aside from construction spending data that was reported to be slightly better than expected, the news story of the day was the December sales numbers for Ford, GM and Toyota.

Ford Motor Company reported a drop in sales to the tune of 32%. Even worse, Toyota sales plunged about 37%. Massive discounting and incentive packages have yet to entice consumers to open their wallets for large item purchases. Although, some sources note that the problem isn't necessarily with a lack of demand for automobiles but rather a lack of available financing. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

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Commodities are hot, as Jim Rogers would say. Stagnant stocks and the massive bull rally in raw commodities have lured much of the attention away from Wall Street and toward down-town Chicago. It is difficult to turn on the television or open the newspaper without being reminded of the impact that commodity prices have on our daily lives.

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