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Treacherous Treasury futures |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 01 September 2010 14:44 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. September 1, 2010 What are the true costs of trading futures and options? Carley Garner and Karen Gibbs discuss.... http://www.aweber.com/archive/decarleystock/.MPm Treacherous Treasury futures Just as Treasury traders focused on the bullish fundamental factors in yesterday's session, today was all about the bearish arguments. Unfortunately, the market is having difficulty coming to a reasonable middle ground. A few days ago, we called for consolidation trade in the Treasury markets and I guess in a roundabout way that is what we are seeing. However, this is the most exciting consolidation I have seen in years! The long bond has been quickly moving between 135ish and 132ish. The markets had picked a direction in overnight trade, but the frenzy was propelled by a better than expected ISM reading. According to the Institute of Supply Management, the August index landed at 56.3 to beat last month's as well as analyst expectations. Many are arguing the size of today's move on such a minimal economic report but I argue that much of the motivation was a delayed reaction to the Fed minutes released yesterday. As we noted in the last newsletter, the market focused on the Fed's willingness to take further policy action but ignored the fact that they didn't believe it would be necessary or that the most recent QE move was done with some contention. We are still patiently waiting for the holiday weekend. In theory, market liquidity (and hopefully calmer heads) will return from the three day Labor Day weekend. We aren't going to pretend we know exactly where the market is going, I doubt that anybody is having too much luck given the market conditions. All we can to is chicken scratch the chart, and give you our best guess.... Obvious support and resistance in the December bond futures will be 135'10 and 131'20, respectively; distant levels will be 136'20 and 127. IF the high 136's are seen, it should be a good place to be a bear. On the flip side, seasonals remain bullish for the next several weeks so it might not be a bad idea to try the long side on a massive sell off into the mid-to-low 128's. The notes are a better market to be trading futures in. We like the idea of being short-term bulls in the mid-123's and bears in the mid 126's. Better traders than us might look to play the market in between our noted levels, if so look for a possible swing higher tomorrow ahead of the employment numbers on Friday with the first resistance coming in near 125'09 in the 10 year note and 134'05 in the 30-year bond futures. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2010 14:47 |
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Back and fill Thursday in stock index futures? |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 01 September 2010 14:41 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. September 1st, 2010 What are the true costs of trading futures and options? Carley Garner and Karen Gibbs discuss.... http://www.aweber.com/archive/decarleystock/.MPm Back and fill Thursday in stock index futures? Although this month is known as "Black September" because of its propensity to provide negative stock returns, the first trading day of September has now posted gains in 12 of the last 15 occasions. It is also important to realize that despite media banter about dismal performance in September, the average broad market loss is less than 1%. The bears will tell you that in September of 2009 the markets were coming off a rough August, not unlike what we are seeing play out in 2010. Similarly, investor sentiment was pointing toward doom and gloom and market commentators warned of rocky September seasonals. Yet, the market found a low on September 2nd and rallied nearly 80 handles. Can we get a repeat of last year? We think everything is lining up to pave the way. The major indices were vastly oversold and due for a relief rally, the question now remains whether or not it can hold gains...or more importantly continue higher. Things look good to us, if you recall in yesterday's newsletter we noted "It took a while to sink in, but I think the market eventually saw the Fed minutes as market supportive. The committee maintained a relatively stable to optimistic outlook on the economy as well as pledged to take further steps if necessary. In addition, they are dead set on keeping interest rates low...and isn't that what corporate America needs to fund operations and make money?" Some back and filling is likely necessary and the S&P faces strong resistance near 1080, we doubt the move is over. It is highly likely that this rally caught some large bears standing in front of the bus and they will be looking for opportunities to get out. This means than any pull-back could be met with another round of short covering. Assuming tomorrow's jobless claims and Friday's employment report (referred to as an "unenjoyment report" by our open outcry execution desk) are respectable the September S&P futures contract could be going for just under 1100 and if we get a string of good news...1130 could be on tap. If you are trading the NASDAQ, 1830 is the pivot but the next resistance will be 1873. Like the others, the Russell faces immediate resistance near 624, but if follow through the next resistance will be about 650. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2010 14:43 |
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Essentials of Trading Reviews ATFBOC |
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 05 August 2010 06:30 |
 John Foreman of The Essentials of Trading recently reviewed "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" by Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading. Here is what he had to say:
I was recently given the opportunity to read Carley Garner’s new book, A Trader’s First Book on Commodities. I think Gardner, who’s bio lists her as Senior Market Analyst and Broker with DeCarley Trading, as well as a columnist for Stocks & Commodities (you may have also seen her articles on Trade2Win), has put together a pretty solid introduction to futures trading. Notice I use the term “futures” there rather than “commodities”, though. The book title tends to reinforce the view that commodities and futures are the same thing. The markets were effectively the same thing for many years, but the advent of financial futures a couple decades back means commodities are in reality just one facet of the futures markets at this point. Gardner’s writing doesn’t restrict itself just to commodities in her discussion of futures trading, though. That little terminology nitpick aside, like I said, it’s a solid introductory book. One of its strengths is that Gardner spends more time than most authors do talking about the brokerage side of trading. It’s something a lot of users are likely to benefit from as they make their own trading plan decisions. In standard introductory trading book fashion, the book also covers the usual material on market history, market structure, margin, terminology, instruments, order types, and quotes. She’s also got solid discussions on the subject of trading as a business and the emotional side of playing the markets. Click here to read the complete review of "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" at TheEssentialsofTrading.com For more information on A Trader's First Book on Commodities by Carley Garner, visit http://www.atradersfirstbookoncommodities.com/ |
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Last Updated on Thursday, 05 August 2010 10:12 |
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Reviewed by Futures Magazine |
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 05 August 2010 06:26 |
Futures Magazine recently reviewed Carley Garner's "A Trader's First Book on Commodities""A Trader's First Book on Commodities" is the second book written by Carley Garner, and is quickly becoming a popular source of information for beginning futures traders. The text covers topics such as choosing the proper commodity broker, assessing the right service level and commission rate for your needs and understanding Trader psychology. According to the reviewer at Futures Magazine, "Garner tackles a multifaceted subject and distills it into easily understandable chapters. Her straight forward and logical approach also helps readers absorb the critical information with ease."
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Money Show Interview's Carley Garner |
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 05 August 2010 05:33 |
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Karen Gibbs, formerly of CNBC, Fox News and PBS, spoke with Carley Garner, analyst and broker at DeCarley Trading, on futures and options. The conversation drifted between trader psychology, the purchase of options as insurance against long or short futures contracts, stop orders, alternative views of commission and the bottom line in your trading results, using options to swing trade intermediate-term market trends and determining whether or not your personality is right for futures trading. http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5840&t=3&scode=019106 http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5841&t=3&scode=019106 http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5842&t=3&scode=019106 http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5843&t=3&scode=019106 http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5845&t=3&scode=019106 If you are interested in more in depth insight into this topic, be sure to pick up a copy of "A Trader's First Book on Commodities". Click here to open an account to begin working with Carley or to trade via our state of the art trading platforms DeCarley Tradinginfo@decarleytrading.com1-866-790-TRADE(8723)**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options! |
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Last Updated on Thursday, 05 August 2010 06:01 |
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Futures Market Slang Webinar Archive |
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 05 August 2010 05:26 |
Futures Market Slang Webinar Archive
Overview:If you want to walk the walk, you had better talk the talk. Commodity trading is faced paced, leveraged and unforgiving; it is important that traders are able to clearly communicate their intentions with brokers, back office employees, etc. Trading errors and miscommunications can be extremely costly, don't let the insignificant aspects of trading futures and options become a significant burden to your trading results. Whether you are trading futures and option online, or through a commodity broker...this presentation is a must! Click here to listen to the archive For more visit www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com Here is a list of the key points covered in this presentation: Bull vs. Bear: In regards to the economy, the market, your position Spread: Bid/Ask, Futures, Option Blow vs. Blow Out Busted Trade and Keypunch Errors Net Liq, Account Equity, Net Option Value Short Squeeze, Stop Running Unable, Split Fill, Partial Fill Handle Not Held & Much More...
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options!! |
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Last Updated on Monday, 09 August 2010 11:45 |
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Page 1 of 4 |
Traders are often lured to into the futures markets with a fascination for day trading. The thought of trading leveraged contracts without overnight risk is appealing to many, but underestimated by most. As a retail broker I have had the pleasure, and the pain, of watching day traders attempt to profit through strategies ranging from scalping to "position" intra-day trading which spans several ho...
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A Brief Introduction to Options
Options offer traders an unlimited number of strategies with various levels of risk and reward. Unfortunately, many retail traders are stuck in a long option only "rut" and may not be aware of the potential flexibility offered by alternative option strategies. There is certainly a time and a place for buying outright options, but in my opinion most circumstances seem to favor an alternate approach. 
How to create a Synthetic Put
Options are eroding assets; therefore it isn't always wise to spend a lot of money to purchase an option that will face depreciation as well as dismal odds of success. Instead, it is often a better idea to sell options of different types or strike prices in order to pay for those that you would like to purchase. A put ratio spread does just that. A trader that is interested in buying a put option in hopes of a market decline or to simply protect other positions in their trading portfolio may finance their purchase through the sale of two distant strike priced puts. Here are the details of a put option ratio spread. 
