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Another FOMC Non-Event in Treasuries |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 27 January 2010 13:32 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. January 27th, 2010 Another Non-Event The Fed day just isn't what it used to be; in the not too distant past the FOMC policy statement encouraged high trading volume and impressive volatility. However, it seems as though those days are gone. Instead, today (and most in recent history) was a relatively mundane trading session. The March T-bond futures rallied early on what was likely position squaring ahead of the event risk but after all was said and done it ended the day near unchanged. The Treasury market has been flooded with semi-bullish news, but it just can't seem to make progress on the upside. Accordingly, although we think that there could be much more room for this rally to run in the next month or two we also feel like the bulls are running out of "bull"ets (sorry, that was lame...it has been a long week). The Treasury auctioned $42 billion in 5-year notes at a rate of 2.37% and a bid-to-cover of 2.80. The strong showing likely prevented some Treasury selling but wasn't enough to rekindle buying interest. Additionally, new home sales were reported to be worse than expected and failed to ignite much of a bullish response from the bond pit. The FOMC policy statement was a virtual non-event. The Fed maintained their "extended period" stance when it comes to maintaining low interest rates. However, this time there was one dissenting vote on this. They also confirmed that their mortgage backed securities purchases program will end in march as scheduled and of course the Fed Funds target rate remains near zero percent. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 27 January 2010 13:49 |
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No surprises with Fed Funds policy |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 27 January 2010 14:32 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. January 27th, 2010 As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave overnight interest rates unchanged at approximately 0%. In addition, the Fed didn't throw any curve balls in regards to peripheral policies and programs. They confirmed that the Mortgage Backed Securities purchases would expire at the end of March and reminded the markets that the infamous TALF will soon come to an end. Last but not least, they continue to pledge that interest rates will remain low for an "extended period". That said, at least one member (Hoenig) was against keeping the "extended period" statement. All in all, the Fed offered a positive outlook on the health of the economy. They note that the economy continues to "strengthen" and deterioration of the labor market is "abating". They also note that inflation is likely to be "subdued for some time". Shares of Apple lifted the NASDAQ higher after CEO Steve Jobs introduced the new iPad. At $499 it was created to compete with Kindle and according to the tech giant is more "intimate" than a laptop. The major indices have been beaten down in recent days, but what goes up must come down and vice versa. Assuming that the State of the Union Address doesn't give the market a dose of reality, we are looking for an eventual bounce from current or moderately lower levels. 1077 marks critical support in the March S&P futures, with the next significant area at 1061. However, for now we believe that the mid-to-high 70's will hold. Resistance will be found at 1100 but we think that the upswing will eventually see the low 1120's. Similarly, the Russell appears to be holding our 608ish support and could be headed higher. We see resistance near 628. The NASDAQ could see the 1855ish area on a short covering rally. |
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Commodity Options Book Reviews |
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Written by Administrator
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Monday, 28 December 2009 14:23 |
"Commodity Options" written by Carley Garner was ranked in the top 10 trading and investment books of 2009 by SFO magazine!!
Carley Garner's first book, "Commodity Options" has been well received by the press and her second book, "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" will be on shelves in February 2010. Click Here to see SFO's review of Commodity Options Click Here for other Helpful Reviews of the Book |
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Last Updated on Monday, 28 December 2009 14:39 |
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View Archived Trading Webinars for FREE |
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Written by Administrator
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Monday, 28 December 2009 15:24 |
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 Carley Garner, in conjunction with DeCarley Trading, works hard to provide free trader education and market commentary to the public. Carley is a respected member of the trading community as the author of "Commodity Options" (ranked in the top 10 of 2009 by SFO Magazine) and a monthly contributor to Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Her second book, "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" is already receiving positive reviews and will be on bookshelves in February 2010. If you are interested in learning about Carley's ideas in regards to "do's and don'ts" of commodity futures and options trading, the necessary basics and an interesting perspective on less conventional strategies, you might find these classes beneficial. To review recordings of some of the latest classes click here. **There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options! |
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Last Updated on Monday, 28 December 2009 15:44 |
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